Soda prices: shelf, can costs and outlook for 2026

Soda prices have climbed faster than the grocery basket. Since January 2020 the government's price index for carbonated drinks, which counts soda and sparkling water together, has risen 41%, against 32% for all food at home, and it rose 4.4% in the year to August 2026 alone. This brief follows those prices from the can and the sweetener to the shelf, using public Bureau of Labor Statistics and USDA data, for brands that make soda, sparkling water or other carbonated drinks.

Every chart below is built from published federal data. The sources, with links to the tables behind each line, are at the foot of the page.

Soda prices against the grocery basket

The Consumer Price Index has one line for this aisle: carbonated drinks. BLS counts cola and other sodas, ginger ale, root beer, club soda, tonic water, sparkling mineral water and carbonated energy drinks in it, in all sizes and flavors. No public series splits sparkling water, zero-sugar soda or craft soda out of that line, so everything in this brief describes the aisle as a whole.

Until mid-2022 the carbonated drinks line and the basket crossed several times. Since August 2022 carbonated drinks have stayed above the basket in every month BLS published, and by August 2026 they were 9.2 percentage points ahead: up 41% since January 2020, against 32%.

The carbonated drinks index tends to step up in January. It rose from December to January in every year on the chart except 2022, and in 2024, 2025 and 2026 each January step was several times the basket's. January 2020, the month the chart is measured from, was one of those steps. Measured from December 2019 or from the 2019 average instead, the gap over the basket is wider, not narrower.

Is January when list price increases reach the shelf, or when holiday promotions end? Your own retailer data can tell the two apart, and the answer bears on when your next increase should land.

What a can of soda costs

BLS also tracks the average price of two soft drink packs across U.S. cities and stores. A 12 oz can bought in a 12-pack averaged $0.60 in August 2026, 6.3% more than a year earlier and 67% more than in January 2020. A 2-liter bottle averaged $2.23, up 41% since January 2020 and 0.9% in the year to August 2026.

The can price rose fastest in 2022 and peaked in January 2024. It drifted lower through the rest of 2024 and 2025, then came back close to that peak in 2026. Like the index, it tends to jump in January.

Cans have also pulled away from bottles. Since January 2020, and again over the past year, the can price rose more than the 2-liter price. Both are averages over many brands and promotions, so part of any move is shoppers buying differently, not only tags changing. Has your own volume shifted between cans and bottles, and which pack earns more for you now?

The last two years, month by month

Compared with the same month a year earlier, carbonated drinks cost more in every month BLS published from September 2024 to August 2026. The increases were small in early 2025 and larger in 2026: in seven of the first eight months of 2026, prices rose more than in the same month of 2025. The two biggest increases on the chart came in February and August 2026. In August 2026 carbonated drinks were up 4.4% on a year earlier, twice the 2.2% for all food at home.

BLS published no October 2025 index because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, so every chart here leaves that month blank.

If you took an increase in January, it shows up here. Did every retailer take it, and on which packs?

Aluminum cans cost more, sweeteners less

Three costs behind a can of soda have their own producer price indexes: the aluminum can, corn sweeteners made by wet milling (high fructose corn syrup is one), and refined sugar. Since January 2020 the price can makers charge for aluminum cans and can components has risen 43%, about as much as carbonated drinks on the shelf. Corn sweeteners rose 22% and sugar 23%.

The past year split them. The can index rose 13.9% in the year to August 2026, and since April 2026 it has stood above its 2022 peak. Over the same months corn sweeteners fell 4.2% and sugar fell 10.0%. Corn sweeteners peaked in August 2023 and sugar in May 2024, and both are well below those peaks now. BLS marks the producer prices for May to August 2026 as preliminary, so they may be revised.

For an unsweetened sparkling water, the can is the only one of these three costs that applies. How much of your cost of goods is the can, and how much of its 2026 rise have you passed on?

What soda makers charge against the shelf

The producer price index for carbonated soft drinks tracks what soda makers charge. It has risen 54% since January 2020, against 41% for carbonated drinks on the shelf, and 6.2% in the year to August 2026, against 4.4%.

The shelf ran ahead for most of 2020 and 2021. The two lines crossed back and forth through 2022, and since January 2023 makers' prices have been above the shelf in every month. Measured from December 2019 or the 2019 average instead, makers' prices are still ahead.

The two indexes come from different BLS surveys, one of makers and one of stores, and need not cover exactly the same drinks. Even so, a maker's price that rises faster than the shelf leaves a difference somewhere. Retailer margin, trade spend and what each survey covers are all candidates, and your own retailer data can separate the first two.

What the USDA expects

The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts prices for nonalcoholic beverages to rise 4.2% in 2026, against 2.4% for all food at home. That group is much wider than soda: it includes coffee, tea and juices as well as carbonated drinks. Its price index rose 3.7% in the year to August 2026 and 38% since January 2020, in both cases a little less than carbonated drinks. The forecast compares the 2026 average with 2025's, so it is not the same measure as a change from one August to the next. For 2027 the range is wider still, anywhere from a fall to a steep rise.

What's next for beverage brands

The can is the cost to watch. The producer price of aluminum cans rose faster than anything else in this brief over the year to August 2026, while sweeteners got cheaper. If your can contracts reprice once a year, find out when, and whether the 2026 rise is already in your cost of goods or still on its way. A pricing conversation with your retailers is easier to open before that date than after it.

Packs are moving at different speeds. The 12-pack can price rose far more than the 2-liter over the past year. Which packs carry your volume at each retailer, and does your price ladder across cans, bottles and multipacks still hold together?

Sparkling water, zero-sugar soda and craft soda all sit inside the carbonated drinks index, and none has a public price series of its own. So the line in this brief cannot say whether your segment is priced with the aisle, above it or below it. Retailer and syndicated data can, and they can also show whether shoppers are following.

Scout reads the retailer portals and syndicated feeds these questions need. To see what the numbers look like for your own brand, ask below.